VoxUkraine Blog


Ukraine: Time to sever IMF’s lifeline?

Ukraine’s improving economic situation creates a feeling of no urgency in further IMF financing. This view is not justified if one looks at the three-year horizon. Ukraine faces $14bn of external debt payments over the next three years, with half of them in 2019 – a year of presidential and parliamentary elections. Foreign currency reserves that the country has accumulated have to be built up further, rather than spent. Otherwise, Ukraine’s economy may appear on the brink of another economic crisis right before the election year, which may have a dramatic effect on the country’s development trajectory post-2019.


Which Ministers of Hroysman’s Government Have Managed to Keep their Promises

How efficient has the government of Volodymyr Hroysman been? Have the ministries had more work and have they managed to do it well? We sought to answer these questions by analysing the implementation of the government’s program. It turns out that the Ministry of Sport is the best in keeping its promises, yet its goals and tasks are far from ambitious. The Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as the Ministry of Finance, are also among the leaders. Yet even the leaders failed to meet more than 25% of their targets. Another problem is the uneven distribution of tasks between the ministries, as the Ministry of Economy is responsible for almost a third of the tasks. The government is becoming less transparent as its ministries are less willing to reply to requests and share information. Full text is available in Ukrainian and Russian.


iMoRe # 49. Improvements Before The New Year: A Simplified Business Environment

The index for monitoring reforms (iMoRe) increased slightly due to significant positive changes in the sphere of deregulation. Experts’ assessment of progress of reforms for November 21 through December 4 is +0.9 points, out of a possible +5 points. The main driver of this increase was reform in business environment, and some changes that occurred in public finance and the monetary sphere.


Land-Related Court Disputes: What to Consider before the Introduction of the Land Market

The widespread media coverage of conflicts around agricultural land does not match the actual statistics of court disputes. Their share in the total number of litigations in Ukraine is 3%, which is ten times as little as the number of contract disputes and 7.5 times as little as the number of family disputes. Most of the disputes concern non-agricultural land. Yet the implementation of the agricultural land market (and hence the rise of the value of agricultural land) can have an impact on the frequency of land court disputes. Full text is available in Ukrainian and Russian.


“Industrial Parks”: Falling into the Same Trap Once Again?

Recently, the Verkhovna Rada adopted two new laws regarding industrial parks (№2554а-d, №2555а-d). These new pieces of legislation provide tax and customs incentives for the industrial enterprises that occupy Ukraine’s industrial parks. Is this a good or bad development? What insights can economic theory and international experience provide?


The Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area: Obstacles on the Way Forward

Starting from 1 January 2016 the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (the DCFTA) envisaged in the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement has been provisionally applied. As recently published data suggests the DCFTA has already begun to bear fruit. Yet, the arrangement comes with its own set of challenges. The present article highlights them bearing in mind the ambitious objective of the Agreement of gradually integrating Ukraine’s economy in the EU Internal Market.


Minimum Wage and Tax Evasion

The Ukrainian government considers doubling the minimum wage in 2017. This policy step is aimed to resolve several issues but perhaps the most important one is to stimulate firms and workers to disclose their incomes. Will this policy work?