VoxUkraine analyzed the dynamics of passenger traffic to Crimea and looked at the relative percentages of Russian and Ukrainian visitors. We also discovered the manipulation of some data by “the Crimean authorities”.
Category: Eastern Ukraine/Crimea
VoxUkraine has collected and analysed all the available data on the number of people crossing the demarcation line in Donbass, as well as all the available statistics on the dynamics of shelling. This analysis shows whether people keep leaving Donbass, what determines the intensity of shelling and whether high-level diplomacy has any influence on Russian and DNR/LNR guns. Full text is available in Ukrainian and Russian
Settlers and “housing problem”, or why 1.5 million migrants haven’t affected the housing market in Ukraine
Donetsk, Luhansk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia region, according to official statistics, received over 70% of all settlers from the occupied part of Donbass, that is more than 1 million people. It seems that such a significant and almost immediate increase in population would have resulted in a boom in the housing market. But this did not happen. What rules is the housing market for IDPs works?
Full text is available in Ukrainian and Russian.
This column assesses the economic situation in the war-affected East of Ukraine. Given official statistics are not available, we use changes in nighttime light intensity, measured by satellites, to estimate to what extent the war has destroyed the economy, and whether any recovery can be observed since the Minsk II agreements.
Valentyna Smal, Director of Analytical Center SV-Platform has gathered the most comprehensive dataset on internally displaced persons from the Crimea and Donbass. She has found out who those people are, where they live and where they are looking for a job. Can they become a driver of the economic growth in Ukraine?
Recently VoxUkraine published the article of Robert Cooper ‘Ukraine’s strategy in the East’. It raises an extremely important question about a possible set of steps needed to resolve military conflict in Eastern Ukraine. While I fully endorse the objectives and means, and the overall idea that the situation should be taken from battlefields to diplomatic halls, I highly doubt that the suggested steps are feasible.
The article on Ukraine’s strategy on East says it is written in the main to “attempt to stimulate thought and debate”. Yes it does this. It also shows genuine concern for those who are suffering and goes into detail on a possible way of handling the situation. But might it also be seen as pressure on Ukraine from ‘the West’?
Sir Robert Cooper from London School of Economics, have spent a week in the Donbas together with the monitoring group of the OSCE and have written a road map for resolving the conflict in Donbas. He believes that the implementation Minsk 2 by Ukraine even unilaterally will help to resolve the conflict successfully. VoxUkraine publish this article as part of discussion on ways of solving Donbas conflict.
There is a wide perception that the economic situation in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) is dismal. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) is in deep crisis too. Approximate estimates suggest that the DNR/LNR economy is only a fifth of its pre-war level. In this post, we try to use one of such indirect tools to get a sense of how the DNR’s economy is doing.
After the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, Daniel Treisman said Ukraine would be next in line, with Crimea as a likely flashpoint. In his view, Georgia was a case of Russian imperialism and it is a matter of time when such a thing would happen once again. However the central question of today’s Ukrainian situation is why the front line stopped where it stopped.